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The 94th Academy Award Predictions
Below are my guesses for what is going to happen on Sunday night. Are they probable? Who the heck knows. A lot of categories are up for grabs while a […]
Below are my guesses for what is going to happen on Sunday night. Are they probable? Who the heck knows. A lot of categories are up for grabs while a few are sewn in.
We will be revisiting these guesses, my own personal preferences, and how I did when the Oscars are over.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
My Nominations
- Javier Bardem – “Being The Ricardos”
- Benedict Cumberbatch – “The Power Of The Dog”
- Andrew Garfield – “tick, tick…BOOM!”
- Will Smith – “King Richard”
- Denzel Washington – “The Tragedy Of Macbeth”
Who Will Win: Will Smith – “King Richard”
There is no way that they won’t have the star power of Will Smith not speak at the awards.
Who Should Win: Benedict Cumberbatch – “The Power Of The Dog”
Phil Burbank will stick in your guts and it is all a credits to Benedict Cumberbatch and his remarkable skills.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
My Nominations
- Ciarán Hinds – “Belfast”
- Troy Kotsur – “Coda”
- Jesse Plemons – “The Power Of The Dog”
- J.K. Simmons – “Being The Ricardos”
- Kodi Smit-McPhee – “The Power Of The Dog”
Who Will Win: Troy Kotsur – “CODA”
He has won every award on the circuit thus far and again it is not unwarranted. He is the comedic spoon that stirs the emotional drama of CODA.
Who Should Win: Kodi Smit-McPhee – “The Power Of The Dog”
Kodi Smit-McPhee does so much with his eyes, and his manipulation of he and Phil Burbank’s relationship in the final hour is remarkable.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
My Nominations
- Jessica Chastain – “The Eyes Of Tammy Faye”
- Olivia Coleman – “The Lost Daughter”
- Penélope Cruz – “Parallel Mothers”
- Nicole Kidman – “Being The Ricardos”
- Kristen Stewart – “Spencer”
Who Will Win: Olivia Coleman – “The Lost Daughter”
Here is my long shot. I think Chastain has been campaigning her ass off, and she may be the betting favorite right now…but let’s never count out Coleman. I think she is going to pull off the upset and continue her reign as the best actress in Hollywood.
Who Should Win: Kristen Stewart – “Spencer”
I have flip-flopped on this category a lot as well, and I still can’t land on what I want too. I have struggled with Being The Ricardos in the weeks after I have seen it, and my mind keeps wandering to the silent acting of Spencer. The horror movie performance wrapped in a drama sticks with you like glue.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
My Nominations
- Jessie Buckley – “The Lost Daughter”
- Ariana DeBose – “West Side Story”
- Judi Dench – “Belfast”
- Kirsten Dunst – “The Power Of The Dog”
- Aunjanue Ellis – “King Richard”
Who Will Win: Ariana DeBose – “West Side Story”
She is the sexy pick and admittedly she is the best part of West Side Story by a mile. There will be controversy with who from the cast was invited and who wasn’t, but I think that whole thing is overblown.
Who Should Win: Jessie Buckley – “The Lost Daughter
I still can’t get over the scene where young Leda walks out on her husband and her kids. Young Leda is a despicable human yet you have a touch of empathy for her because who the hell knows what they are doing at that age. Jessie Buckley knocks the part out.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
My Nominations
- “Encanto”
- “Flee”
- “Luca”
- “The Mitchells Vs. The Machines”
- “Raya And The Last Dragon”
Who Will Win: “Encanto”
Encanto will win and it will be somewhat of a popularity vote. Flee is a dark horse just because it is in two main categories, but Encanto is still the take.
Who Should Win: “Encanto”
I have only seen Encanto…therefore that is all I can talk about. Even with that said, I really, really liked it, so have on qualms about it.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
My Nominations
- “Dune” – Greig Fraser
- “Nightmare Alley” – Dan Lausten
- “The Power Of The Dog” – Ari Wegner
- “The Tragedy Of Macbeth” – Bruno Delbonnel
- “West Side Story” – Janusz Kaminski
Who Will Win: “Dune” – Greig Fraser
Scope, scope, and grandeur. Fraser is on a heater with Dune and The Batman. Let’s get this momentum running.
Who Should Win: “Dune” – Greig Fraser
I have flip-flopped on this quite a bit, and I am back on the Greig Fraser train. I almost leaned toward Bruno Delbonnel and The Tragedy Of Macbeth, but the movie is more reliant on it’ production design to set up the gorgeous shots.
COSTUME DESIGN
My Nominations
- “Cruella” – Jenny Beavan
- “Cyrano” – Massimo Cantini Parrini, Jacqueline Durran
- “Dune” – Jacqueline West
- “Nightmare Alley” – Luis Sequeira
- “West Side Story” – Paul Tazewell
Who Will Win: “Cruella” – Jenny Beavan
A very fun Disney movie is made remarkably better with super fun rock fashion show performances. A movie about the fashion industry its going to get the award the fits with it.
Who Should Win: “Dune” – Jacqueline West
Every single race that we see in Dine has a different look and appeal. You can tell who is who just from the look they have….and the sound. We will get to that.
BEST DIRECTOR
My Nominations
- Kenneth Branagh – “Belfast”
- Ryûsuke Hamaguchi – “Drive My Car”
- Paul Thomas Anderson – “Licorice Pizza”
- Jane Campion – “The Power Of The Dog”
- Steven Spielberg – “West Side Story”
Who Will Win: Jane Campion – “The Power Of The Dog”
The Power Of The Dog Is the best made movie of the year, and Campion was the catalyst for it all.
Who Should Win: Jane Campion – “The Power Of The Dog”
What I said above. The Power Of The Dog is excellent in every which way.
BEST DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)
My Nominations
- “Ascension”
- “Attica”
- “Flee”
- “Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)”
- “Writing With Fire”
Who Will Win: “Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)”
All of the awards have been sweeping this way and every podcast I have listened too has it as the winner. When nobody is saying anything else, I have to believe it.
Who Should Win: “Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)”
It is the only one of the nominations that I have seen…therefore it gets the “should win”…but I am not educated enough to argue anything else.
BEST DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)
My Nominations
- “Audible”
- “Lead Me Home”
- “The Queen Of Basketball”
- “Three Songs For Benazir”
- “When We Were Bullies”
Who Will Win: “Lead Me Home”
Lead Me Home may win because it shines a light on area of society that often doesn’t get it. It is a documentary mean to send a message and not just entertain the masses.
Who Should Win: “The Queen Of Basketball”
The Queen of Basketball is a delightful watch. Straight up, delightful and happy. I love every bit of it.
FILM EDITING
My Nominations
- “Don’t Look Up” – Hank Corwin
- “Dune” – Joe Walker
- “King Richard” – Pamela Martin
- “The Power Of The Dog” – Peter Sciberras
- “tick, tick…BOOM!” – Myron Kerstein, Andrew Weisblum
Who Will Win: “tick, tick…BOOM!” – Myron Kerstein, Andrew Weisblum
So tick, tick…BOOM! got two nominations and I think it is going to win both. The shocking thing to keep an eye on here will be if King Richard wins…because that means it has a much better shot at getting Best Picture than I would like.
Who Should Win: “The Power Of The Dog” – Peter Sciberras
Editing doesn’t need to be flashy. It also can be important in its simplicity. That is what The Power Of The Dog does. The last 20 minutes is perfectly paced and dragged out that you can understand what’s happening without any dialogue.
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
My Nominations
- “Drive My Car”
- “Flee”
- “The Hand Of God”
- “Lunana: A Yak In The Classroom”
- “The Worst Person In The World”
Who Will Win: “Drive My Car”
If you want to question everything you have ever done with big decisions?
Who Should Win: “Drive My Car”
It is the only one I have seen in the category, but even with the caveat, it is the only one among the five here that is nominated for Best Picture, so that means it is a tier above.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
My Nominations
- “Coming 2 America” – Mike Marino, Stacey Morris, Carla Farmer
- “Cruella” – Nadia Stacey, Carolyn Cousins
- “Dune” – Donald Mowat, Love Larson, Eva von Bahr
- “The Eyes Of Tammy Faye” – Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, Justin Raleigh
- “House Of Gucci” – Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock and Frederic Aspiras
Who Will Win: “The Eyes Of Tammy Faye” – Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, Justin Raleigh
If you come out of watching The Eyes Of Tammy Faye, the one thing you’d remember is the transformation that Jessica Chastain has to go through. So much hair and makeup.
Who Should Win: “The Eyes Of Tammy Faye” – Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, Justin Raleigh
Chastain carries the movie…and she also has to carry all the make-up. She does it exceptionally well.
ORIGINAL SCORE
My Nominations
- “Don’t Look Up” – Nicholas Britell
- “Dune” – Hans Zimmer
- “Encanto” – Germaine Franco
- “Parallel Mothers” – Alberto Iglesias
- “The Power Of The Dog” – Jonny Greenwood
Who Will Win: “Dune” – Hans Zimmer
This may be the lock of all locks for the show…even thought it won’t be shown on the show…and it should be…but I digress.
Who Should Win: “Dune” – Hans Zimmer
Hans Zimmer literally created instruments and an entire new sound. You can tell that Denis Villeneuve sought him out because it was a passion project for Zimmer. You felt that. It was remarkable.
ORIGINAL SONG
My Nominations
- “Be Alive” – Beyoncé Knowles-Carter, Dixson (King Richard)
- “Dos Oruguitas” – Lin-Manuel Miranda (Encanto)
- “Down To Joy” – Van Morrison (Belfast)
- “No Time To Die” – Billie Eilish, Finneas O’Connell (No Time To Die)
- “Somehow You Do” – Diana Warren (Four Good Days)
Who Will Win: “Dos Oruguitas” – Lin-Manuel Miranda (Encanto)
They are going to give Lin-Manuel Miranda his EGOT.
Who Should Win: “Down To Joy” – Van Morrison (Belfast)
I had not idea how much of an impact music would play in Belfast, but it is crucial. This song hits and plays a huge impact in the tenor and tone of the movie. It is not a plot moving device, but rather a them setting one.
BEST PICTURE
My Nominations
- “Belfast”
- “CODA”
- “Don’t Look Up”
- “Drive My Car”
- “Dune”
- “King Richard”
- “Licorice Pizza”
- “Nightmare Alley”
- “The Power Of The Dog”
- “West Side Story”
Who Will Win: “The Power Of The Dog”
I have no qualms about this. It is the best made movie. It has been atop my list since I first saw it. It was among the first two of the Best Picture nominees I saw, and it has stayed up there in my estimation.
Who Should Win: “Dune”
This is with my heart, and I am admitting that. Dune is remarkably made, but it is also the most entertaining for me. It combines both the skill and the fun value; it is a crowning achievement on both fronts.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
My Nominations
- “Dune”
- “Nightmare Alley”
- “The Power Of The Dog”
- “The Tragedy Of Macbeth”
- “West Side Story”
Who Will Win: “Dune”
Scope, scope, scope. As I have said 100 times, Dune is remarkable in combining the CGI and the practical. The settings in the throne rooms and the battle when the Sardaukar swarm on the Atreides are awe inspiring. Also there is so much filming on site in the deserts. It all works.
Who Should Win: “The Tragedy Of Macbeth”
The Tragedy of Macbeth is nothing without its stage setting. It is the fulcrum that makes the movie go. I can argue for all five of these movies to win, but the one that had the most importance to its film succeeding in The Tragedy Of Macbeth.
SHORT FILM ANIMATED
My Nominations
- “Affairs Of The Art”
- “Bestia”
- “Boxballet”
- “Robin Robin”
- “The Windshield Wiper”
Who Will Win: “Robin Robin”
Going solely off the fact that the Hollywood Critics Association award this award to Robin Robin.
Who Should Win: N/A
I can not say because I have not seen any of the nominations.
SHORT FILM LIVE ACTION
My Nominations
- “Ala Kachuu – Take and Run”
- “The Dress”
- “The Long Goodbye”
- “On My Mind”
- “Please Hold”
Who Will Win: “The Long Goodbye”
The star power of Riz Ahmed lifts The Long Goodbye above the rest. It won all of the London/England awards and now it is going to happen in the grand old United States as well.
Who Should Win: N/A
Haven’t seen any of these nominees, so I can not say anything with any validity.
SOUND
My Nominations
- “Belfast” – Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather and Niv Adiri
- “Dune” – Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson, Tod Maitland, Shawn Murphy
- “No Time To Die” – Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, Paul Massey
- “The Power Of The Dog” – Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie, Tara Webb
- “West Side Story” – Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson, Shawn Murphy
Who Will Win: “Dune” – Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson, Tod Maitland, Shawn Murphy
Big, blustery, bombastic. The sounds of Arrakis are as important to the story as the score. I remember Star Wars movies winning this award often, and this may be the new version of that.
Who Should Win: “Dune” – Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson, Tod Maitland, Shawn Murphy
Dune is the most technically sound movie of the bunch and yes it should win all the awards for look and sound.
VISUAL EFFECTS
My Nominations
- “Dune” – Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor, Gerd Nefzer
- “Free Guy” – Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis, Dan Sudick
- “No Time To Die” – Charlie Noble, Chris Corbould
- ““Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” – Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker, Dan Oliver
- “Spider-Man: No Way Home” – Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein, Dan Sudick
Who Will Win: “Dune” – Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor, Gerd Nefzer
If Dune does not win, we riot. If Shang-Chi And The Legend Of The Ten Rings wins, we start a nuclear war.
Who Should Win: “Dune” – Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor, Gerd Nefzer
Dune should win, and it most likely will. No movie did scope like Dune. No movie blended CGI and practical as well as Dune. No movie is close to Dune in this regard.
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
My Nominations
- “CODA” – Siân Heder
- “Drive My Car” – Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe
- “Dune” – Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, Eric Roth
- “The Lost Daughter” – Maggie Gyllenhaal
- “The Power Of The Dog” – Jane Campion
Who Will Win: “CODA” – Siân Heder
It is almost impossible to pick. I am taking a shot blind and hoping I am right. I have no gripe with any movie if any of them were to win. They all have arguments with them. I think that they give it to CODA because it won’t win for Best Picture, and this will be its coronation, as well as Best Supporting Actor.
Who Should Win: “The Power Of The Dog” – Jane Campion
The ability to tell a story and all of its depths without over-talking is remarkable. That is what Jane Campion does.
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
My Nominations
- “Belfast” – Kenneth Branagh
- “Don’t Look up” – Adam McKay, David Sirota
- “King Richard” – Zach Baylin
- “Licorice Pizza” – Paul Thomas Anderson
- “The Worst Person In The World” – Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
Who Will Win: “Licorice Pizza” – Paul Thomas Anderson
Paul Thomas Anderson really doesn’t miss, and this will be the category to honor him in. I think that it is going to be really, really close between Licorice Pizza and Belfast. A lot of first or second place votes.
Who Should Win: Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson
I love how people will say that nothing happened in this movie, but oh how I just disagree. I love Licorice Pizza’s romance.
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