Predicting The 96th Academy Awards

The time is nigh. It is tonight. The 96th Academy Awards are here. Last year I was in the minority because I didn’t love Everything Everywhere All At Once (2022). I know, don’t clutch your pearls too much. While I was not clamoring the applause on my couch, I can also acknowledge that seeing the momentum last year was electrifying. The crowd was getting more, and more, excited as the end of the night was approaching. It was an unexpected coronation.

This year, there is a bit more certainty about many of the major awards. Oppenheimer (2023) is the heavy, heavy, HEAVY favorite to win best picture. It will be collecting more than a handful of major awards, and most it takes home will bring no argument of murmurs from the crowd.

Overall this year I have seen 103 movies released. Not every film nominated, but that will be the eventual goal. These are my predictions and quick thoughts on the category. I have written some rankings and summaries about some of the major awards thus far, and those are attached as well.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Bradley Cooper – “Maestro”
Colman Domingo – “Rustin”
Paul Giamatti – “The Holdovers”
Cillian Murphy – “Oppenheimer”
Jeffery Wright – “American Fiction”

WHO WILL WIN: Cillian Murphy – “Oppenheimer”
WHO SHOULD WIN: Cillian Murphy – “Oppenheimer”
WHO I WOULD HAVE WIN: Cillian Murphy – “Oppenheimer”

It would appear that Cillian Murphy has it wrapped up. I hope he does. He deserves it. I think there is a 10% chance that Paul Giamatti can jump in and steal this award, but still Murphy should be considered the heavy favorite. Overall these are all good performances. Personally, I didn’t love the movie “Rustin”, so Colman Domingo gets a slightly negative tilt.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Sterling K. Brown – “American Fiction”
Robert De Niro – “Killers Of The Flower Moon”
Robert Downey Jr. – “Oppenheimer”
Ryan Gosling – “Barbie”
Mark Ruffalo – “Poor Things”

WHO WILL WIN: Robert Downey Jr. – “Oppenheimer”
WHO SHOULD WIN: Robert Downey Jr. – “Oppenheimer”
WHO I WOULD HAVE WIN: Robert Downey Jr. – “Oppenheimer”

Start the awards ceremony with Robert Downey Jr. winning this award. Start the ceremony with what is sure to be one of the best speeches of the entire night. Do it!

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Annette Benning – “Nyad”
Lily Gladstone – “Killers Of The Flower Moon”
Sandra Hüller – “Anatomy of a Fall”
Carey Mulligan – “Maestro”
Emma Stone – “Poor Things”

WHO WILL WIN: Lily Gladstone – “Killers Of The Flower Moon”
WHO SHOULD WIN: Emma Stone – “Poor Things”
WHO I WOULD HAVE WIN: Greta Lee – “Past Lives”

A two-horse race between Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone. I think it’s safe to say that this is the best chance for “Killers Of The Flower Moon” to win an award, and that is why I think Gladstone is going to take it. However, I would pick Emma Stone from this lot because there is now way “Poor Things” worked without her at all. But two very, very different type of performances. One quiet and one loud. Personally, I would go Greta Lee from “Past Lives” if she was nominated.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Emily Blunt – “Oppenheimer”
Danielle Brooks – “The Color Purple”
America Ferrera – “Barbie”
Jodie Foster – “Nyad”
Da’Vine Joy Randolph – “The Holdovers”

WHO WILL WIN: Da’Vine Joy Randolph – “The Holdovers”
WHO SHOULD WIN: Emily Blunt – “Oppenheimer”
WHO I WOULD HAVE WIN: Tracee Ellis Ross – “American Fiction”

I am not with the populous on this one. Da’Vine Joy Randolph is good in “The Holdovers”, but I don’t think she is immeasurably better than anyone. I would put Emily Blunt above her because there are scenes from “Oppenheimer” with her that are crazy rewatchable. If it was up to me, I can’t forget what Tracee Ellis Ross did in her short time in “American Fiction.” She immediately humanizes Jeffery Wright as Monk, which becomes crucial for the entire story.

My Rankings Of The Five Nominees For Best Supporting Actress

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

“The Boy And The Heron”
“Elemental”
“Nimona”
“Robot Dreams”
“Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse”

WHO WILL WIN: “Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse”
WHO SHOULD WIN: “Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse”
WHO I WOULD HAVE WIN: “Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse”

I have only seen “Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse”, which is the only movie that I need to see. “The Boy And The Heron” has a legit shot here, but “Across The Spider-Verse” is one of my favorite movies in this crop of eligible, regardless of what genre you place it. I am slightly upset “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem” didn’t get nominated.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

“El Conde” – Edward Lachman
“Killers Of The Flower Moon” – Rodrigo Prieto
“Maestro” – Matthew Libatique
“Oppenheimer” – Hoyte Van Hoytema
“Poor Things” – Robbie Ryan

WHO WILL WIN: “Oppenheimer” – Hoyte Van Hoytema
WHO SHOULD WIN: “Oppenheimer” – Hoyte Van Hoytema
WHO I WOULD HAVE WIN: “Oppenheimer” – Hoyte Van Hoytema

I have not seen “El Conde” so that is out of the picture for me. From everything I have read, “Oppenheimer” and Hoyte Van Hoytema are expected to win this award. I still think “Maestro” and “Poor Things” should be worthy of consideration. “Poor Things” uses color hues I can’t recall seeing before, and “Maestro” still has the best single shot and character unveiling of any film this year (IMO).

COSTUME DESIGN

“Barbie” – Jacqueline Durran
“Killers Of The Flower Moon” – Jacqueline West
“Napoleon” – David Crossman, Janty Yates
“Oppenheimer” – Ellen Mirojnick
“Poor Things” – Holly Waddington

WHO WILL WIN: “Poor Things” – Holly Waddington
WHO SHOULD WIN: “Barbie” – Jacqueline Durran
WHO I WOULD HAVE WIN: “Barbie” – Jacqueline Durran

This is a two horse race between “Barbie” and “Poor Things.” It is an interesting argument because “Poor Things” had to create things from scratch and the imagination in all of Bella’s outfit choices is astronomical. With “Barbie”, the costumes are often based on dolls, but that homage is so important to nail if you want to be successful with the vibe of the movie. For me, if “Barbie” didn’t nail the costumes, the movie would not have worked as well as it did, so it gets my nod. But I think “Poor Things” wins it.

BEST DIRECTOR

Justine Triet – “Anatomy of a Fall”
Martin Scorsese – “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Christopher Nolan – “Oppenheimer”
Yorgos Lanthimos – “Poor Things”
Jonathan Glazer – “The Zone Of Interest”

WHO WILL WIN: Christopher Nolan – “Oppenheimer”
WHO SHOULD WIN: Christopher Nolan – “Oppenheimer”
WHO I WOULD HAVE WIN: Christopher Nolan – “Oppenheimer”

Christopher Nolan is winning. Hands down. Place your money on the table. It’s as sure-fired and Robert Downey Jr. winning for Best Supporting Actor and “Oppenheimer” winning best picture.

BEST DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)

“Bobi Wine: The People’s President”
“The Eternal Memory”
“Four Daughters”
“To Kill A Tiger”
“20 Days In Mariupol”

WHO WILL WIN: “20 Days In Mariupol”
WHO SHOULD WIN: N/A (Haven’t Seen Any Nominees)
WHO I WOULD HAVE WIN: “BS High”

I have not seen any of the nominees. Shame on me.

BEST DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)

“The ABCs of Book Banning”
“The Barber Of Little Rock”
“Island In Between”
“The Last Repair Shop”
“Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó”

WHO WILL WIN: Cs of Book Banning”
WHO SHOULD WIN: N/A (Haven’t Seen Any Nominees)
WHO I WOULD HAVE WIN: “Eco-Hack!”

I have not seen any of the nominees. Shame on me.

FILM EDITING

“Anatomy of a Fall” – Laurent Sénéchal
“The Holdovers” – Kevin Tent
“Killers Of The Flower Moon” – Thelma Schoonmaker
“Oppenheimer” – Jennifer Lame
“Poor Things” – Yorgos Mavropsaridis

WHO WILL WIN: “Oppenheimer” – Jennifer Lame
WHO SHOULD WIN: “Oppenheimer” – Jennifer Lame
WHO I WOULD HAVE WIN: “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” – Mike Andrews

“Oppenheimer” and Jennifer Lame will win this, but I need to give a special shoutout to Mike Andrews and “Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse.” I am not sure if animation editors can get recognized in this category because I don’t see it very often, but the editing in the escape from Spidey City Central is absolutely perfect. That and the sound track make it a rewatchable scene and one of the best of the year.

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

“Io Capitano” (Italy)
“Perfect Days” (Japan)
“Society of the Snow” (Spain)
“The Teacher’s Lounge” (Germany)
“The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom)

WHO WILL WIN: “The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom)
WHO SHOULD WIN: “The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom)
WHO I WOULD HAVE WIN: “The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom)

Unfortunately the only film in this category I have seen is “Zone Of Interest”. Thankfully, “Zone Of Interest” is incredible and is not only a great International feature, it’s one of the best movies of the entire year. Hands down.

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

“Golda”
“Maestro”
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”
“Society of the Snow”

WHO WILL WIN: “Maestro”
WHO SHOULD WIN: “Poor Things”
WHO I WOULD HAVE WIN: “Poor Things”

I heard this on either “The Big Picture” or “Blank Check” podcast, but the fact that “Maestro” had the nose controversy and the family came out in support of the film gives this movie a nice edge in this category. I have not seen “Golda” or “Society In The Snow”, so it really comes down to “Maestro” and “Poor Things.” I think all the different hairstyles Emma Stone has to don, and the makeup makes bonds great with the costume design.

ORIGINAL SCORE

Laura Karpman – “American Fiction”
John Williams – “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny”
Robbie Robertson – “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Ludwig Göransson – “Oppenheimer”
Jerskin Fendrix – “Poor Things”

WHO WILL WIN: “Oppenheimer” – Ludwig Göransson
WHO SHOULD WIN: “Oppenheimer” – Ludwig Göransson
WHO I WOULD HAVE WIN: “Oppenheimer” – Ludwig Göransson

Is Ludwig Göransson the next big name in movie scores? Or is he already here? It could be both. But he and “Oppenheimer” should, and will be taking home this hardware.

ORIGINAL SONG

“The Fire Inside” from “Flamin’ Hot” (Becky G)
“I’m Just Ken” from “Barbie” (Mark Ronson, Andrew Wyatt)
“It Never Went Away” from “American Symphony” (Jon Batiste)
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People) from “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Oklahomans)
“What Was I Made For?” from “Barbie” (Billie Eilish)

WHO WILL WIN: “What Was I Made For?” (Billie Eilish, Finneas) – Barbie
WHO SHOULD WIN: “I’m Just Ken” from “Barbie” (Mark Ronson, Andrew Wyatt)
WHO I WOULD HAVE WIN: “Am I Dreaming” – (A$AP Rocky, Metro Boomin, Roisee) – Across The Spider-Verse

I have not seen “Flamin’ Hot”, so that one is out. I didn’t even think to include “It Never Went Away” from “American Symphony”, but when the nominations came out it was a pleasant surprise to know I had seen that movie. The score of “Killers Of The Flower Moon” is great, but you need to look at “Barbie” if you are going to look at winner here. “I’m Just Ken” is the fan favorite, but I think it’s Billie Eilish and Finneas who are going to win their second Oscars.

BEST PICTURE

“American Fiction”
“Anatomy Of A Fall”
“Barbie”
“The Holdovers”
“Killers Of The Flower Moon”
“Maestro”
“Oppenheimer”
“Past Lives”
“Poor Things”
“The Zone Of Interest”

WHO WILL WIN: “Oppenheimer”
WHO SHOULD WIN: “Oppenheimer”
WHO I WOULD HAVE WIN: “Oppenheimer”

“Oppenheimer” is going to win here, but I want to see the ballots. I want to see the second place votes, the third place finishes. Which film was voted the last most? I think when I rank the Best Picture nominees, people are going to be upset with me.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

“Barbie”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Napoleon”
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”

WHO WILL WIN: “Barbie”
WHO SHOULD WIN: “Poor Things”
WHO I WOULD HAVE WIN: “Poor Things”

This one is tough. This one is real tough. I think all of these films have merits, but “Napoleon” is at the bottom of the list. I think “Barbie” is going to take this because its a chance to honor the film and damnit if Greta Gerwig and company didn’t bring Barbieland to life remarkably well. But “Poor Things”, I can’t get that weird Willy Wonka version of Victorian England out of my head!

SHORT FILM ANIMATED

“Letter To A Pig”
“Ninety-Five Senses”
“Our Uniform”
“Pachyderme”
“War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko”

WHO WILL WIN: “War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko”
WHO SHOULD WIN: N/A (Haven’t Seen Any Nominees)
WHO I WOULD HAVE WIN: “South Park: Joining the Panderverse”

I have not seen any of the nominees. Shame on me.

SHORT FILM LIVE ACTION

“The After”
“Invincible”
“Night Of Fortune”
“Red, White And Blue”
“The Wonderful Life Of Henry Sugar”

WHO WILL WIN: “The Wonderful Life Of Henry Sugar”
WHO SHOULD WIN: “The After”
WHO I WOULD HAVE WIN: “Poison”

I have seen two of these films. I have seen “The After” which really shook me and left an impact with the turn that it took. But the favorite is “The Wonderful Life Of Henry Sugar” by the well known and respected Wes Anderson. It is a very good short film with a lot of star power attached to it, but the fact is that it was not my favorite of Anderson’s quartet of movies. I personally loved “Poison” and thought that was hilarious.

SOUND

“The Creator”
“Maestro”
“Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning: Part One”
“Oppenheimer”
“The Zone of Interest”

WHO WILL WIN: “Oppenheimer”
WHO SHOULD WIN: “Oppenheimer”
WHO I WOULD HAVE WIN: “Maestro”

This one puts me in a pickle. I think “Oppenheimer” is going to win, and it has every right too because the particle sequences and the way sound is used in the editing makes it award worthy. Having just watched “The Zone Of Interest”, I am going to be haunted by the faint gun shots and the screaming people that echo in the background. But there was only one movie this year that made me cry with sound, and that was “Maestro” in the Ely Cathedral.

VISUAL EFFECTS

“The Creator”
“Godzilla Minus One”
“Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 3”
“Mission Impossible – Dead Reckoning: Part One”
“Napoleon”

WHO WILL WIN: “The Creator”
WHO SHOULD WIN: “Godzilla Minus One”
WHO I WOULD HAVE WIN: “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”

How “Oppenheimer” isn’t nominated is a bit surprising, but because Nolan prides himself on as much practical as possible, well perhaps that dings it. I have heard unbelievable things about “The Creator” and “Godzilla Minus One,” but I have no seen those. I think “The Creator” will win because it accomplished so much on a smaller budget. I think that “Godzilla Minus One” should win because that movie became an international sensation and its visual appeal plays a massive part. But if it was up to me, I would recognize “SPider-

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

“American Fiction” – Cord Jefferson
“Barbie” – Noah Baumbach, Greta Gerwig
“Oppenheimer” – Christopher Nolan
“Poor Things” – Tony McNamara
“The Zone Of Interest” – Jonathan Glazer

WHO WILL WIN: “American Fiction” – Cord Jefferson
WHO SHOULD WIN: “Oppenheimer” – Christopher Nolan
WHO I WOULD HAVE WIN: “Oppenheimer” – Kai Bird, Christopher Nolan, Martin Sherwin

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

“Anatomy Of A Fall” – Arthur Harari, Justine Triet
“The Holdovers” – David Hemingson
“Maestro” – Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer
“May December” – Samy Burch, Alex Mechanik
“Past Lives” – Celine Song

WHO WILL WIN: “Anatomy Of A Fall” – Arthur Harari, Justine Triet
WHO SHOULD WIN: “Past Lives” – Celine Song
WHO I WOULD HAVE WIN: “Past Lives” – Celine Song

“Anatomy Of A Fall” seems to have gathered steam in this category, and I am a bit surprised by the matter. Over the past couple weeks I have heard some discourse surrounding it. Is it meant to be as on the nose as it can be at times? Personally, “May December” only being nominated for this Oscar is nuts, and it’s a better screenplay than “Anatomy Of A Fall”. But with that being said, “Past Lives” is one of my favorite movies of the year. It’s ending is perfect, and it’s the whole journey to get there.

My Rankings Of The Five Nominees For Best Original Screenplay

The 96th Academy Awards – Stanko’s Version (Version 42.0)

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